Elite 8 Best bets for Sunday March 30: Top Selection and Expert States

The great thing about this step in the tournament is that we can be sure of one thing: every game left will be exciting to look at. Of course, it can make it harder to find out how to invest, but this is where our “best bets” list can come in handy.

I have made a deep dive in both Sunday’s Elite Eight games and compiled a list of what I consider to be the best bets on the day.

Houston (-3) against Tennessee +135

Below 123.5 points on -110

This may be the simplest decision in the tournament.

Here you have a Houston defense that is ranked as No. 1 in the country (58.5 points per allowed game) and Tennessee’s No. 8-ranked defense (62.8 points per allowed match). No crime is bad – or exceptional. At best, they can be described as good enough and supplementary with polished defenses.

But mediocre crimes can be controlled by dominant defense. That will be the case in what might be the lowest score in the tournament.

LJ Cryer, under 2.5 triangles made at -107

He is Houston’s leading goal scorer, and he has made 11 three in tournament games (an average of 3.7 per match). After meeting only one of five attempts against Purdue, it would be easy to say that he is guilty. But Vols plays good circumference defense, and I expect them to do their best to keep crying in check.

Felix Okpara under 6.5 Returns of -164
Igor Milicic Jr., under 4.5 Returns of -133
Same Game Parlay Odds: +197

Okpara comes from an 11-Rebound game against Kentucky and had seven against UCLA. Milicic has been unreliable on the boards in tournament games and recorded three, seven and four. I would not say that Houston necessarily has a prominent rebounder, but J’wan Roberts and Joseph Turner both on average about six.

I knock on Houston being solid on the offensive boards and keeps Vols limited.

Michigan State (+178) against Auburn (-4.5)

Auburn -4.5

I expect this game to have many similarities to Auburn-Michigan. The tigers were 9.5 points favorites, but Wolverines looked more ready to play during the first half than Auburn. But the Tigers were the better team and proved equally with a 48-36 second half.

It is not difficult to see this game as a potentially upset choice of how well the Spartans have played. But Auburn is the better of the two teams here. It may not be obvious during the first half, but it will be in the second.

Denver Jones, over 1.5 triangles made on -158
Johni Broome, over 11.5 returns of -110
Same Game Parlay Odds: +217

For starters, I wanted to join for Jones’ 3-points because Michigan State’s survey is solid. But Jones is not one of Auburn’s primary point threats (he was fifth in the team in points during the regular season; he had 20 against Michigan).

But since the Spartans will be more focused on Broome, Baker-Mazara and Pettiford, I can see him get some really good looking and beat two from Deep.

When it comes to Broome’s rebound number, he was an average of 10.8 per match during the season and has had 11, 12 and 16 in tournament games. Statistically, Michigan State is the better rebounding team, but I don’t think one of the best players in the game will be denied.