MLB Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds against Milwaukee Brewers, April 3

A gaming win that does not involve any sweating throughout the duration is the best type of victory to achieve, and that is exactly what we got last night in our cozy Red Sox-Oiioles underneath, thanks to Garrett Crochet.

For tonight we take a rare break from over/below to place a money. On this short slate with five games there is one that is too good to pass.

It comes in Milwaukee, where the red and breweries open a series of four games. For some reason, the home team (-120) is favored by the odds-makers-if barely.

Still, it is a puzzling decision to list the breweries as favorites. Just look at the pitching match.

Former New York Yankee Nestor Cortes gets the ball for his second start as a brewery. It would be difficult to duplicate something as nightmare as what he showed in his team debut last week on the road at Yankee Stadium.

Cortes gave up home runs on each of his first three heights in the game – Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge took him deep. Yes, you read right: three places, three home races.

By the end of his excursion, the eighth year Southpaw had been tagged in eight runs in just two rounds, including five home races. This was a possible trend that came into the season after Cortes allowed a career high 24 long balls a year ago.

Another about the state from Cortes season 2024: Opponents met .245 against him, the highest brand he has registered since he became a full -time start.

The signs are there as Cortes is in a tough season – than just a tough start to it – and for his other assignments he will meet an opponent who may not let him settle because of their aggressive baserunning. The reds were one of three teams in Majors last year to record at least 200 stolen bases, and they boast the league’s best baserunner in that category, Elly de la Cruz.

But this bet hangs more on the second starter in this matchup, Nick Lodolo.

The 27-year-old was a breakout candidate who came in the season, and he flashed that potential in his first year last weekend and went six strong rounds against a San Francisco Giants lineup which is on average five runs per match early.

As I noted in his first excursion, Lodolo was actually huge last year even though I ended up with a 4.76 era. Before he experienced blister and finger problems, he had a 2.96 and 1.07 Whip that entered July and would undoubtedly have been an all-star.

The TCU product has met Brewers four times since debuted in Majors three years ago. In these games he published a 3.38 era and 1.00 whips over 24 rounds while listing 9.4 strikes per nine rounds.

In addition, Lodolo can take advantage of pitching on the road in this one. He has been significantly better away from hitters -friendly Great American Ball Park.

Expect Lodolo to continue its ascent. Cincinnati should be able to provide him with enough driving support, and that will be.

Pick: Reds ML (Ev, Draftkings)

2025 MLB Over/Under Game record: 5-2-1, +2.65 units
Above/below: 4-2-1
Props: 1-0
MLS: 0-0
Yesterday’s results: RED SOX-OIOLES UNDER 8 (WIN)

Each bet is rated as if it would win a unit unless otherwise stated.

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