MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, April 20

Yesterday’s over/during venture was smooth sailing – surprisingly, Ben Lively is led than Paul Skeps – and every player in human history wishes they all came so easily. Unfortunately, that’s not how it works.

We will seek another similar result from the same place to close the week, with Pittsburgh Pirates worth of Cleveland Guardians and trying to avoid a three-game-sweep.

One of Pirate’s best start buttons, Mitch Keller, draws the assignment here. He has a solid start this season and records a quality start in all except one of his four excursions. If not for a rough performance where he was tagged by the New York Yankees in Pittsburgh’s home opener, Keller would have a much more attractive era (4.30) and Whip (1.35) next to his name.

Although Iowa -in -born has experienced a decline in strikes – not only early this year but until 2024 overall – there are still things to like with Keller, especially when he is in the right place.

This matchup against Guardians feels like one of these places. For starters, it is a home game for Keller, which has generally put much better within the friendly boundaries of PNC Park than on the road. In 71 home games (70 starts), the 29-year-old has a 4.07 era while limiting opponents to only 0.81 homers allowed per nine rounds.

Contrast it with a 5.14 era and 1.27 hr/9 in 66 competitions (65 starts) outside Pittsburgh, and the differences are strong.

Keller’s ability to keep the ball in the park at home will serve him well in this matchup. Cleveland is bound for ninth in baseball in team homes, so preventing the long ball can be a decisive factor in whether he goes deep in the excursion – or at least turns in a quality start.

Noteworthy has only been hit by Keller so far this season. If he can navigate in the upper half of Cleveland’s battle orders, he should be able to keep the ball in the yard, especially considering that there is no significant power threat in addition to Carlos Santana in place # 5.

On the other hand, Logan Allen also does a good job of limiting the long ball, which only allows a home run through his first starts. After a Rocky Season debut, the previous draft of the second round has hoped back with a couple of strong excursions and can now take advantage of the promise he showed when he first debuted.

By 2023, Allen impressed as a beginner and went 7-8 with a 3.81 era while he was almost on average one strike per innings. Last season did not go as planned – he was sent even a few times – but the current version of Allen looks a lot like the solid rookie campaign.

Allen began to turn his heads during spring training, where he published a sharp 1.89 era and knocked out 19 battles in 19 rounds.

Pittsburgh may be another favorable matchup. As mentioned this spring during investment yesterday, the pirates are one of the worst offensive teams that start year-and-even worse against left-wing pitching. They are ranked as the 24th team batting average to the left (.195), 27th base percentage (.263) and 27th: ei sluggish percentage (.302).

And it doesn’t stay there. Bucs also knocks out on a high clip against Southpaws and fans once every third bats. Yuck.

However, this total should not generate a “yuck” reaction. Expect a little quality start to take us home.

Choose: Under 8 (-102, Draftkings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 14-12-1, -0
Above/below: 12-8-1
Props: 2-3
MLS: 0-1
Yesterday’s results: Guardians-Pirates under 8.5 (Win), Chris Sale over 17.5 outs (loss)

Each bet rated as in order to win a unit unless otherwise stated.

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