The first four continue Wednesday with a couple of exciting games, one with Mount St. Mary’s who takes on American University and the other Xavier against Texas. There has been a certain line movement for both games since Sportsbooks published the Open Odds.
But that doesn’t mean you should avoid them. Knowing how the public is investing can help you decide what you want to do. Let us check these games for this purpose (odds via Draftkings).
First four: Mount St. Mary’s (+120) against American University (-2.5)
The third match of this year’s NCAA Division I Basketball Basketball Championship lasts at 18:40 Östra, with Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12) facing the American University Eagles (22-12). To the winner go the prey – a date with Duke in the first round.
The rock climbers got their place in the first four thanks to a suffocating defense that held their tournament opponents to a maximum of 58 points (they allowed 69.8 points per match during the regular season). But the victory margin in these games were only four, two and 14 points.
Defense led the way for Eagles as well. Their conference opponents were held at 69, 62 and 52 points – numbers slightly in line with their regular seasonal average of 67.3 points permitted per match. They were quite consistent with crime as well and scored 71, 72 and 74 points.
Our choice: American -2.5 (opened at -1.5)
Had I caught this game when the line opened, I would be all over. But it opened at 133.5 for this defensive battle, and it is now 129.5. It’s only four points, but it is enough to doubt crawling into my mind.
When it comes to my choice, Mount was St. Mary’s Defense tremendously during her conference tournament, but it looked nothing during the regular season. However, American US Defense played as well as it had all year during their tournament.
Consequently, I trust the Eagles to lock the rock climbers in this game and cover the spread.
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First four: Xavier (-3.5) against Texas (+140)
The first four ends with Xavier Musteers (22-11) which takes on Texas Longhorns (19-15). Playing time is scheduled for 21:10 Eastern with coverage on Trutv. The winner will officially become the No. 11 seed in the Midwest region and meets Illinois on Friday 21 March.
Xavier lost his last match, the Big East Quarter final, to Marquette 89-87, but ended the regular season on a seven-game winning line. Texas enters the tournament with an inconsistent finish and loses four of its last five in the regular season.
Then Longhorn’s Vanderbilt and Texas A&M beat in the SEC tournament before losing to Tennessee in the semi-finals, 83-72. But before Texas assesses Texas, its schedule must be taken into account.
Texas went 5-8 against top-25 teams and 10-15 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. Xavier was more consistent but went 2-5 against top-25 team and 9-11 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams.
Our choice: Texas ML
I was comfortable taking Texas Moneyline when it opened on -102, but now that you can find it at +140, this bet has absolute value. Xavier may look better on paper, but Texas would probably have been even better if it had played a similar schedule.
About taking Longhorns to win directly makes you nervous, the spread has gone from where it opened to +1 to +3.5.
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